Success at the polls
13th May 2010
"Election nights usually test the pollsters' nerves. In hindsight, little cause for them to worry this time round. From the start of the campaign the polls consistently predicted a hung parliament. Our faith in market research should be reassured.
Not that pollsters' crystal balls foresaw everything: the precise number of seats each party would win, for example, or that the Conservatives and Lib Dems would broker a deal. But from the Conservative lead narrowing in early 2010 to the rise of 'Cleggmania' and floating voters' last minute rally to the 'old parties', the pollsters' forecast that neither Brown nor Cameron would secure a majority proved accurate.
This really helped us prepare clients well for the election outcome, enabling them to adjust early to the opportunities and challenges that a hung parliament presents. And the value of market research in public affairs doesn't end with the exit polls. In fragile political circumstances, decision-makers will be more sensitive to what backbench MPs are thinking. Effective public affairs programmes will need to consider attitudes and opinions more closely, not just those of MPs but officials, party members and voters too.