The big question
4th Feb 2011
"Clients often ask us the $64,000 question: how long will the coalition last? A difficult question to answer for anyone without a crystal ball! That’s not only because coalitions lack precedent in Westminster, but also because of the contingency around a range of issues: cuts, recovery and unemployment, NHS reform and changes to the electoral system to name just a few. And that’s aside from the potential from Rumsfeldian ‘unknown unknowns’.
Currently the scene looks reasonably stable. Periodically, though, tensions will rise and we have already seen enough evidence to suggest this parliament will be the most rebellious for some time. But the leaderships of both coalition partners have clear interest in sustaining current arrangements and even the more discontented MPs among their ranks may fear an early election that risks a swing to the opposition as cuts start to bite and the economy continues to wobble.
So, with the long term outlook hazardous to predict, we have decided to review the situation regularly at the end of every quarter. The dynamics inside the coalition and its prospects for survival matter to our clients, as may particular policies causing restlessness on the backbenches. This approach gives perspective to disaggregate what might really test the coalition from what is causing only temporary controversy, rating the threat appropriately. It keeps our client strategies lively, relevant and adaptable to shifts in the way the coalition is working."