Political marriage. Made to last?
27th May 2010
"When pondering wedlock in 1838, Charles Darwin listed the pros and cons of marriage under two headings: 'marry' and 'not marry'. Included were 'lifetime companionship' (pro) and 'less money for books' (con). The same analysis, post-nuptial, provides an indication of how long the new Cameron-Clegg union will last.
Pros. Cameron's more liberal instincts chime with the orange book agenda. This explains why the coalition agreement was the least painful option for combining the two parties' manifestos. Socially, both leaders move in similar circles and even have a handful of mutual friends. Constitutionally, the 55% no confidence vote offers a bit a handcuff.
Cons. Let's start with, to name a few, latent disagreements over Europe, immigration, nuclear power, electoral reform, foreign policy and hunting. Then extrapolate forwards the grumblings we already hear from traditional Tory MPs over 1922 Committee reform and giving away too much to the Lib Dems. Imagine the pressure traditional left-wing Lib Dems will put on their MPs. Then add the impact spending cuts will have on backbench loyalty towards Cameron and Clegg- especially from MPs with marginal constituencies.
On this basis we give this marriage a year or two - after that it is survival of the fittest."