Marginal Seats - just follow the money
13th Apr 2010
"We've all seen a lot of news lately about the shifting polls and how each percentage point dramatically changes the makeup of parliament. Most predictions translate percentages into MPs using the universal national swing method. This method takes national poll results and applies them to every constituency in the country.
The poll last weekend showing a ten point lead for the Conservatives translates (on universal national swing) to a twenty seat Conservative majority. This lead also means (on universal national swing) that in some constituencies nobody (not even the candidate) would vote Labour. This is a very fair and objective way of translating polls to seats. It is also nonsense.
National polls do not predict seats at Westminster. Bookmakers however, are providing some interesting insights. Ladbrokes is taking bets on every single constituency and has based its predictions and odds on bets made by local punters. Their predictions are wildly different from the ones based on polls - giving the Conservatives just a four seat majority of MPs.
These predictions show that in some seats in the South East where the Conservatives need a swing of 4%, the odds are more in their favour than in some Northern seats where the swing required is less than 1%.
Punters know about local issues and local political campaigns that could never be picked up by national polls. They seem to be saying that despite the polls the deal for the Tories is far from done. David Cameron should be preparing for government with a very slim majority."